Despite delays, will planned rail service boost South Coast property market?

Real estate agents in the New Bedford and Fall River areas are bracing for a possible surge in home buying after South Coast Rail’s new commuter lines finally open next spring, barring another delay.

And agents in parts of Bristol County say they are already seeing a moderate increase in investment purchases of single-family and multifamily homes in the two poor cities and surrounding areas. Vacant properties and underutilized commercial buildings are also being targeted.

“People are coming from Boston looking for deals,” said Nathan Carroll, a real estate agent with The Echelon Group at Lion Gate Realty in Fall River. “A lot of them are looking for multifamily homes. There are also developments coming up near the waterfront. The commuter line is playing a role there.”

No one is saying that New Bedford, the famous fishing port, and Fall River, the former textile giant located on the eastern shore of Mount Hope Bay, are booming.

In fact, neighboring cities and towns are facing the same fundamental problem that every other community in Massachusetts faces: a lack of homes for sale amid strong demand.

A severe imbalance between supply and demand is relentlessly pushing up home prices and pushing them further out of reach for many workers and first-time homebuyers in the state’s southeast, agents say.

Waiting for Impact

Still, housing market data suggests that Bristol County has slightly outpaced the rest of the state in terms of home price increases since 2021 — and local officials attribute that trend to a number of factors.

The annual median price for single-family homes statewide has increased by 21%, to $609,900, since 2021, according to data from the Warren Group, publisher of Banker & Tradesman. Meanwhile, the annual median price for a single-family home in Bristol County has increased by 23%, to $485,000, since 2021.

It’s not a huge price difference, but it’s still a difference that favors an area of ​​the state not known for its strong real estate market, industry figures say.

More recently, market data shows that Bristol County is keeping pace with the rest of the state.

The statewide median price for single-family homes rose 10 percent in the first six months of 2024, to $609,900, compared with the same period last year. Bristol County’s median single-family home price during the same period rose 9 percent, to $485,000, according to The Warren Group.

In Fall River, the year-to-date median price for single-family homes rose 7% to $413,000, while the median price increased 8% to $379,000 in New Bedford.

Some Bristol County communities outside of New Bedford and Fall River actually saw large increases in median single-family home prices during the first two quarters of 2024, such as Dartmouth (prices up 22%), Raynham (up 21%) and Westport (up 18%).

Nicole Plante, owner of Even Keel Realty in Westport, said the future South Coast Rail Line has had little to no effect so far on her coastal town of 16,000, located at the mouth of Buzzards Bay.

Instead, she said Westport is still experiencing a post-pandemic influx of people moving from cities to more open, affordable areas of the state. Meanwhile, some older people living on Martha’s Vineyard and Nantucket are also buying homes in Westport to be closer to mainland hospitals and other medical facilities, Plante said.

A 90 minute train ride

While the upcoming transit line won’t reach all the way south to Westport, it’s likely to have an impact on the entire housing market in the area, Plante acknowledged.

“This will attract more people,” she said.

Also known as the Fall River/New Bedford Rail Line, the South Coast Rail project was originally scheduled to open in 2023 but was delayed until 2024. Then this spring, MBTA officials announced that the launch will be delayed once again, until May 2025.

Regardless of when it opens, the train service will have stops in Middleborough, East Taunton, Freetown and Church Street in northern New Bedford, with terminals north of downtown Fall River and between the New Bedford city piers and historic downtown.

New Bedford and Fall River will each have three morning and three evening trains to Boston’s South Station, and a handful of service between peak hours. The trains will take about 90 minutes to make each one-way trip, officials said in 2022.

Lori Nery, co-owner of Coastal Realty in New Bedford, said there is a sense of excitement about the launch of the new rail service. Construction is nearly complete and the MBTA is already conducting test runs on the tracks, she said.

“The vibe is: This is really going to happen soon,” Nery said. “They’re really testing the tracks. We can see it with our own eyes.”

Low prices and the city center are expected attractions

New Bedford has definitely seen its share of Boston-area buyers coming to the city in search of more affordable housing in general.

“They’re discovering New Bedford for the first time. They’re just amazed at the prices,” she said.

Additionally, New Bedford’s recently revitalized downtown area is attracting both developers and homebuyers looking for deals, she said.

But she hopes the future passenger train could be a game-changer for the city and the entire area, she said.

“It’s really exciting what’s happening in New Bedford,” she said. “Everyone seems to be getting on board with the New Bedford bandwagon.”

Donna Davids, an associate broker at Coldwell Banker in Easton, said several cities in Bristol County, such as Taunton, have benefited recently from people from outside the area seeking more affordable homes.

“All you have to do is follow the numbers — just follow the affordability numbers,” said Davids, who is also regional vice president of the Massachusetts Association of Realtors.

But the arrival of the passenger line will only increase the number of people looking for homes in the Southeast, she said.

“We are definitely seeing an increase in interest in the area,” she said.

Echelon Group’s Carroll said the combination of housing affordability in Fall River, at least compared to prices in the Boston area, and the arrival of the commuter line are changing the market dynamics.

“There’s a buzz now,” he said. “It’s all creating a positive impact.”