VENEZUELA – why today’s elections matter to the West | World | News

MILLIONS of Venezuelans are expected to vote to oust President Nicolás Maduro from power as the country faces presidential elections today.

Such a move would represent another crucial blow to Latin America’s so-called “pink tide,” which was already challenged last year when right-wing populist Javier Milei secured the presidency in Argentina.

And, crucially, it could return to the West what was once South America’s richest nation, after years of dangerous influence exerted by Russia and China.

But Maduro, who took power after the death of his socialist mentor Hugo Chavez 11 years ago, is unlikely to willingly concede defeat in his bid for a third term.

Measures such as using state funds for electoral campaigns, blocking votes from abroad, preventing an opposition favorite from running and banning independent foreign observers from entering Venezuela already suggest that these will not be fair elections.

And just two weeks ago, Maduro himself said at a rally that there could be a “civil war” if he did not win.

The latest polls show Maduro, 61, trailing Edmundo Gonzalez, 74, by nearly 40 points, with just 12.5 percent support for the incumbent compared with 59.6 percent for the opposition leader.

That could spell the end of the socialist experiment begun by Chavez in 1999 that saw Venezuela’s once-prosperous, oil-rich economy plummet, triggering hyperinflation and the exodus of more than 8 million citizens fleeing poverty.

Families now need about $500 a month to live, while the minimum wage is $130 a month, although some critics say US sanctions, imposed in response to alleged human rights abuses and democratic backsliding, are also to blame.

Significantly, it could also see Venezuela embrace the West once again, after years of strong Russian and Chinese influence.

In Moscow, Vladimir Putin has been watching events unfold in Venezuela.

Venezuela provided diplomatic support to Russia during its invasion of Ukraine, with Maduro criticizing Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy while accusing Western countries of fueling the conflict.

Russia sent two warships to visit Venezuela earlier this month after a stop in Cuba, and Moscow also has warm ties with Nicaragua. Critics say such displays of force are meant to emphasize that Russia has friends in the region.

A Gonzalez victory, therefore, would severely threaten Russia’s power projection in Latin America, just when Putin needs more leverage against Washington DC.

“Just as Russia sees the United States encroaching on its own sphere of influence with NATO’s expansion into Eastern Europe, it sees an opportunity to do exactly the same by strengthening partnerships with its historic, authoritarian allies in Latin America, namely Nicaragua, Cuba and Venezuela,” said Henry Ziemer, an analyst at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

China’s relationship with Venezuela – described as “foolproof and weatherproof” – is much more transactional. China is a major player in Venezuela’s oil and gas sector, as well as being the OPEC country’s largest creditor.

In 2007, the company struck a £40bn deal for oil-for-credit lines and loans with then leader Hugo Chavez, and currently has £8bn of outstanding debt – money Beijing wants back.

“The restoration of proper democracy in Venezuela would be an important milestone regionally, but it would also put an end to Chavista policies of rapprochement with the world’s worst regimes, such as Russia, China and Iran, which would be welcomed by the entire Free World,” said Dr. Alan Mendoza of the Henry Jackson Society think tank last night.

But whatever the results of today’s election, they will not be instantaneous.

“If the vote goes in Gonzalez’s favor, he will need to negotiate Maduro’s exit plan, providing assurances on how they can exit the political scene without ending up in jail or losing all their assets,” warned Prof. Victor Bulmer-Thomas of the Institute of the Americas, University College London. “This could take weeks.”

The outcome of the presidential vote will also not change the composition of the Venezuelan congress, where the pro-Maduro PSUV coalition still holds power.

Like Milei in Argentina, Gonzalez may be forced to compromise some of his right-wing agenda.

“He is a former diplomat so he may find it easy to build bridges,” Professor Bulmer-Thomas said.

“The compromise really helped Milei, forcing him to abandon some of his more radical ideas to become more effective.”

But unlike Milei, Gonzalez is believed to be little more than a frontman for Corina Machado, whom Maduro banned from running in the presidential election after she won the opposition primaries by a landslide.

Machado, 56, went to boarding school in Massachusetts and participated in the World Fellows Program at Yale University in 2009, a year before the late Russian opposition leader Aleksei Navalny.

She visited Washington periodically until the government banned her from leaving Venezuela.

A defender of the free market, Machado called for the privatization of state assets and the opening of Venezuela’s economy to investment, in addition to indicating that she would like to strengthen ties with the United States.

Professor Bulmer-Thomas added: “It would be unwise to assume that an electoral defeat, due to an indefensible situation for the government, means that the socialist cause in Venezuela is lost forever.

“We remember when Violeta Chamorro won in Nicaragua, defeating the Sandositas in 1990; everyone said it was the end of Nicaragua’s social dream. Then, six years later, they were back, and Daniel Ortega has remained in power ever since.”

He added: “That said, Maduro does not have the charisma of Chavez or even Ortega, so if there is a return to socialism in Venezuela, it probably won’t be with him as leader.

“That makes everything much more complicated.”